May 2022 – @Mariana Vargas – After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we see how the world began to rearrange itself, especially on the international energy board, we see new strategic alliances, investment opportunities in renewables, diversification of energy matrices and decreased dependence on some global suppliers. For the purposes of this article, we would like to analyze an international player that has played an important role in the sector: the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
We highlight the main player in the Middle East, because of its long-standing alliance with the United States for 70 years, representing both interests in the region, as a powerful country, with great regional alliances and influence. Within U.S. foreign policy, whether under Obama, Trump, Bush or Biden the Middle East is the territory on the map for which they themselves are given the responsibility to protect and bring peace.
The benefits of the United States having Saudi Arabia as an ally are many; you have the influence that Saudi Arabia has in the region, it will have eyes in the Persian Gulf, it will have as an ally countries like Egypt, which serves as the “mediator” for the disputes in the region and as one of the parties that influences the Gaza Strip, in addition to highlighting the Saudi role in the international energy market, just to mention a few.
From a few years ago, the Saudi King was displaced and allowed the prince to take his place as the head of the kingdom; Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), a young lawyer with experience in being an advisor, was in charge of Aramco during the king’s tenure and executed major policies in the Yemeni war, in order to maintain President Mansur Al Hadi, in the face of enemy coalitions persuaded by the Iranian government.
However, this is not all, we also see how after being appointed prince in 2017, Saudi Arabia began to feel certain movements, among them; most of the oligarchs who made life inside the country began to be audited, imprisoned and the government confiscated their assets collecting a total of $100 billion. For many, this move was not done with the intention of “cleansing the country of corrupt people”, but as a strategy on the part of the prince to monopolize power within the Saudi kingdom. Similarly, a sensitive issue has been the death of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in the Kingdom’s Consulate in Istanbul, who was critical of MBS. The prince denies any responsibility.
Like any leader, the prince has clearly changed the rules of the game, standing up to the United States and refusing to increase production due to the current conflict, as well as allying himself in current circumstances with Russia, commercially speaking. Saudi Arabia seems to be changing its personality to a more rebellious one. Maintaining the kingdom’s wealth; first oil exporting country, effective alliances in the region and in OPEC, Saudi stock exchange actively trading resources, but annoying the United States, ignoring President Biden’s calls.
Analyzing a United States without Saudi Arabia on the world stage is both intriguing and worrisome. If the kingdom of the current MBS continues with its rapprochement with Russia and distancing from the United States, the ground is perfectly fertile for the birth of an oligopoly on the part of the two major producers and exporters of hydrocarbons in the world, consequently being these the ones who influence its price, distribution and market in general.